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Weather Forecast - 05.19.15

The Gilmer Free Press

We had a Summer-like weekend complete with warm temperatures, some humidity…and at times some downpours.

A cold front is settled over the Midwest this morning and while it will get closer to us it won’t move into our region until Tuesday.

As a result, we’ll remain very warm and muggy today and we’ll have to continue to watch the sky for some occasional downpours.

Already this morning some spotty light showers have popped up and we should see an uptick in shower coverage by lunchtime as a weak disturbance moves through.

Once that passes, some hazy sun will break back out and temperatures will warm to around 84 degrees, similar to what we experienced on Sunday.

As we heat up scattered showers will grow into scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon and this evening.

The main threat would be downpours that can last 20-30 minutes in any area.

That could cause some isolated street flooding but as soon as the rain stops that problem would quickly subside.

It is possible a storm or two out west in Kentucky and Ohio could produce strong winds but rain is the primary issue.

Scattered storms will continue this evening but after the sun sets they will gradually begin to fade away. We’ll fall to around 64 degrees overnight with some patchy fog possible.

That cold front will push through midday Tuesday, so during the morning some spotty showers could still pop up…perhaps even a thunder rumble for the WV mountains.

By afternoon skies will clear and humidity will drop noticeably. It will still be warm with a high of 81.

Cooler air settles in by Wednesday. The day starts with sun before clouds increase with another cold front.

Temperatures will reach just above 70 degrees.

It looks like a little light rain will move in Wednesday night into Thursday before clearing out…and that’s really the only hiccup the rest of this week.

Skies clear Thursday afternoon with a high of 70.

Friday looks like a perfect 10 with high pressure in control providing us with plenty of sunshine.

We’ll see a high of 70. Great way to kick off Live on the Levee and the Memorial Day weekend!

Saturday will be terrific too with a bit of a warmup. We’ll start the day in the 40s with patchy fog but expect a good deal of sun the rest of the day with a high reaching 77 degrees.

By Sunday we’ll be up into the mid 80s again and with some added humidity and isolated thunderstorm isn’t out of the question, mainly in the WV mountains but most look dry.

Hopefully we can hold off rain for Memorial Day Monday but there is a cold front moving east through the Ohio Valley so we may have some afternoon storms to track.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch - 05.11.15

The Gilmer Free Press

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 17 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA

BRAXTON CALHOUN CLAY GILMER NICHOLAS ROANE WEBSTER

IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

BARBOUR DODDRIDGE HARRISON LEWIS PLEASANTS RITCHIE TAYLOR TYLER UPSHUR

IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

KANAWHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF... BELINGTON… BELMONT… BRIDGEPORT… BUCKHANNON… BURNSVILLE… CHARLESTON… CLARKSBURG… CLAY… COWEN… CRAIGSVILLE… FLATWOODS… GASSAWAY… GLENVILLE… GRAFTON… GRANTSVILLE… HARRISVILLE… MIDDLEBOURNE… PADEN CITY… PENNSBORO… PHILIPPI… RICHWOOD… SISTERSVILLE… SOUTH CHARLESTON… SPENCER… ST. MARYS… SUMMERSVILLE… SUTTON… WEST UNION AND WESTON.

From Rockies East, Severe Weather Casts a Wide Net

The Gilmer Free Press

05.10.15—South Dakota was the center of weather extremes Sunday, with a tornado damaging a small town on the eastern side of the state and more than a foot of snow blanketing the Black Hills to the west.

Several Great Plains and Midwest states were in the path of severe weather, including in North Texas, where the National Weather Service said a likely tornado damaged roofs and trees near Denton. At the same time, a tropical storm came ashore in the Carolinas and wintry weather also affected parts of Colorado.

Tropical Storm Ana made landfall near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, on Sunday morning and was downgraded to a tropical depression by Sunday afternoon. The storm’s maximum sustained winds were at 35 mph, and it was expected to move over eastern North Carolina on Sunday night.

In South Dakota, National Weather Service meteorologist Philip Schumacher said law enforcement reported a tornado about 10:45 AM Sunday in Delmont — about 90 miles from Sioux Falls. Delmont Fire Chief Elmer Goehring told The Associated Press that there “have been some injuries,“ and Avera Health spokeswoman Lindsey Meyers said three people were in good condition at a local hospital. No deaths were reported.

South Dakota Department of Public Safety spokeswoman Kristi Turman said about 20 buildings were damaged and the town has no water, power or phones.

In North Texas, a likely tornado ripped roofs off buildings and damaged trees near Denton, about 40 miles northwest of Dallas, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Tom Bradshaw.

About 100 miles west of Fort Worth, people in the sparsely populated ranching and farming community of Cisco were left to clean up from Saturday’s tornado that left one person dead and another in critical condition. Cisco Fire Department spokesman Phillip Truitt said the two people were near each other.

The National Weather Service said that tornado was rated an EF-3, with winds ranging from 136 to 165 mph. At least six buildings were damaged south of Cisco, as well as six others near Lake Leon, Truitt said.

A strong line of storms moved through the Dallas-Fort Worth area Sunday morning, forcing significant delays and a total of 100 flight cancellations at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport and Dallas Love Field Airport.

Forecasters issued tornado watches through Sunday evening for parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Iowa, South Dakota, Nebraska and Minnesota.

Farther north, a late-season snow fell in parts of the Rockies, western Nebraska and western South Dakota.

National Weather Service meteorologist Kyle Carstens said between 10 to 18 inches of snow was on the ground Sunday morning in the Black Hills, and totals could reach 20-24 inches by the time the system moves out. Rapid City, South Dakota, had 8-11 inches, accompanied by 20-30 mph winds.

Nearly 18 inches of snow fell in southern Colorado, a state that also saw hail, flooding and tornado warnings over the weekend.

Study Blames Global Warming for 75% of Very Hot Days

The Gilmer Free Press

WASHINGTON, D.C. — If you find yourself sweating out a day that is monstrously hot, chances are you can blame humanity. A new report links three out of four such days to man’s effects on climate.

And as climate change worsens around mid-century, that percentage of extremely hot days being caused by man-made greenhouse gases will push past 95 percent, according to the new study published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Humans have not had as great an effect on heavy downpours, though. The Swiss scientists who did the study calculated that 18 percent of extreme rain events are caused by global warming. But if the world warms another two degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) — expected to happen around mid-century — about 39% of the downpours would be attributed to humanity’s influence, according to the study. That influence comes from greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide from the burning of coal, oil and gas.

“This new study helps get the actual probability or odds of human influence,“ said University of Arizona climate scientist Jonathan Overpeck, who wasn’t part of the research. “This is key: If you don’t like hot temperature extremes that we’re getting, you now know how you can reduce the odds of such events by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.“

Lead author Erich Fischer, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich, a Swiss university, and colleague Reto Knutti examined just the hottest of hot days, the hottest one-tenth of one percent. Using 25 different computer models. Fischer and Knutti simulated a world without human-caused greenhouse gas emissions and found those hot days happened once every three years.

Then they calculated how many times they happen with the current level of heat-trapping gases and the number increases to four days. So three of the four are human caused, the team said.

And when the scientists dialed up the greenhouse gases — using current pollution trends — to simulate a world about mid-century, they got 26 of those super-hot days, “almost a whole month,“ Fischer said.

The figures that Fischer and Knutti calculated are global estimates. The margins of error, plus or minus about 13% with current hot days, grow larger when smaller regions are considered. However, they found Africa and South America now have the highest percentages of unusual hot days that could be blamed on human influence, 89% and 88% respectively. Europe, at 63%, and North America, with 67%, come in at the lowest. By mid-century, if emissions continue at current pace, all continents will be able blame at least 93% of super hot days on humans.

Half a dozen outside scientists praised the study as valid, elegant and important.

When people ask if a single weird weather event is due to human activity or just natural variation, that’s the wrong question because both factors are always involved, said Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer, who wasn’t part of the study but praised it heavily. This study, he said, asks the right question: “How much of the change is due to human activity and how much is natural variation?“

And once that percentage of damages, costs and deaths can be attributed to human influence, it’s easier for governments to put a price on carbon dioxide emissions in an effort to control global warming, said Duke University climate scientist Drew Shindell.

Online: Nature Climate Change

Freeze Warning for Friday, April 24, 15

The Gilmer Free Press

... FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING… WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY.

* TEMPERATURES… LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

* TIMING… LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS… FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION IF NOT PROTECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

Water Up In Parts of West Virginia - 04.14.15

The Gilmer Free Press

Heavy rain was driving up water levels in parts of Central and Southern West Virginia with areas from Huntington through Charleston to Sutton and down into Mingo County and Wayne County taking the hardest hits.

By Tuesday morning, more than 1 in. of rain had fallen on already saturated areas and another inch was possible before the storm system moved out of West Virginia late Tuesday.

In isolated areas, more than 2 inches of rain was a possibility during the storm.

The greatest flooding threats were in low-lying areas, especially along roads adjacent to creeks and streams.

It is mostly small stream and highways (flooding), but we are watching the rivers start to come up across the area.

The following counties were under Flood Warnings at varying times on Tuesday:

Pocahontas, Nicholas, Randolph, Braxton, Barbour, Webster, Upshur, Lewis, Raleigh, Nicholas, Mingo, Logan, Lincoln, Fayette, Clay, Boone, Wyoming, Webster, Wayne, Putnam, Mason, Jackson, Gilmer, Calhoun, Kanawha, Cabell and Roane.

Flood Watches were in effect in other counties.

Schools in Roane County and Lincoln County were closed because of high water on Tuesday.

Crews with MonPower and Appalachian Power were working to restore power to more than 2,000 homes and businesses as of Tuesday morning.

The chance for more rain will continue through the rest of the week across the Mountain State, according to the National Weather Service.

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