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Some Rain, Wind in Forecast For West Virginia Courtesy of Irma

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What was Tropical Storm Irma, the storm downgraded from the powerful hurricane that made landfall twice in Florida, continued to lose strength on Monday as it pushed through the southern United States while dumping heavy rain.

“It’s now a tropical storm and then it’s going to become a depression and, by the time it gets here, it’s going to be just remnants, just moisture associated with it,” said Andy Roche, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Charleston, on Monday morning.

After “light to moderate” Irma rain from Monday night into Tuesday followed by a break late Tuesday into Wednesday, Roche said West Virginia’s southern and central higher elevations especially would then see some high winds by Thursday, with possible gusts of 30 miles per hour.

On Monday morning, Irma weakened to a tropical storm as it moved into northern Florida.

The latest available track had the system on a path toward the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday, staying to the southwest of West Virginia, while rapidly losing strength.

Roche said the system was getting increasingly disorganized.

“The precipitation got moved toward the north,” he explained. For West Virginia, “It just seems to be just a rain producer system with a little bit of wind. We’re not expecting any major hazards with it.”

For the entire week, meteorologists said rain totals in West Virginia would not exceed one inch.

The National Weather Service had issued a Wind Advisory for Mercer County from 12 p.m. Monday through 9 a.m. Tuesday.

The Wind Advisory was necessary for that time period due to possible gusts of up to 50 miles per hour combined with wet ground that could possibly down trees and lead to power outages, according to forecasters.

Roche said he did not anticipate such Wind Advisories being necessary for the Mountain State later this week.

At least five deaths in Florida and more than two dozen in the Caribbean were being blamed on Hurricane Irma which remained a hurricane for 12 days.

Hurricane Irma Pummels Florida; ‘This One Scares Me’

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A monster Hurricane Irma roared into Florida with 130 mph winds Sunday for what could be a sustained assault on nearly the entire Sunshine State, flooding streets, knocking out power to more than 2 million homes and businesses and snapping massive construction cranes over the Miami skyline.

The nearly 400-mile-wide storm blew ashore in the morning in the mostly cleared-out Florida Keys and then began a slow march up the state’s west coast. Forecasters said it could hit the heavily populated Tampa-St. Petersburg area by Monday morning.

“Pray, pray for everybody in Florida,” Gov. Rick Scott said on “Fox News Sunday” as some 116,000 people statewide waited it out in shelters.

Irma struck as a Category 4 but by midafternoon had weakened to a Category 3 with still-fearsome 120 mph winds and heavy rain. A storm surge of more than 10 feet of water was recorded in part of the Keys, and similar flooding was expected on the mainland.

Many streets were underwater in downtown Miami and other cities. Appliances and furniture were seen floating away in the low-lying Keys, though the full extent of Irma’s wrath there was not clear.

A Miami woman who went into labor was guided through delivery by phone when authorities couldn’t reach her in high winds and street flooding. Firefighters later took her to the hospital.

An apparent tornado spun off by Irma destroyed six mobile homes in Palm Bay, hundreds of miles away along the state’s Atlantic coast. Flooding was reported along Interstate 4, which cuts across Florida’s midsection.

In downtown Miami, two construction cranes collapsed in the high winds. No injuries were reported. City officials said it would have taken about two weeks to move the cranes.

Curfews were imposed in Miami, Tampa, Fort Lauderdale and much of the rest of South Florida, and some arrests of violators were reported. Miami Beach barred outsiders from the island.

There were no immediate confirmed reports of any deaths in Florida, on top of 24 people killed during the storm’s destructive trek across the Caribbean.

While the projected track showed Irma raking the state’s Gulf Coast, forecasters warned that the entire state — including the Miami metropolitan area of 6 million people — was in danger because of the sheer size of the storm.

Nearly 7 million people in the Southeast were warned to evacuate, including 6.4 million in Florida alone.

About 30,000 people heeded orders to leave the Keys as the storm closed in, but an untold number refused, in part because to many storm-hardened residents, staying behind in the face of danger is a point of pride.

John Huston, who stayed in his Key Largo home, watched his yard flood even before the arrival of high tide. “Small boats floating down the street next to furniture and refrigerators. Very noisy,” he said by text message. “Shingles are coming off.”

Irma made landfall just after 9 a.m. at Cudjoe Key, about 20 miles outside Key West, forecasters said. By midafternoon, it was advancing at about 12 mph toward Florida’s southwestern corner, which includes Naples, Fort Myers and Sarasota.

Meteorologist Ryan Maue of WeatherBell Analytics said the entire Florida peninsula will be raked by Irma’s right front quadrant — the part of a hurricane that usually brings the strongest winds, storm surge, rain and tornadoes.

The Tampa-St. Petersburg area, with a population of about 3 million, has not taken a direct hit from a major hurricane since 1921.

The wind began picking up in St. Petersburg, some 400 miles north the Keys, and people started bracing for the onslaught.

“I’ve been here with other storms, other hurricanes. But this one scares me,” Sally Carlson said as she snapped photos of the waves crashing against boats. “Let’s just say a prayer we hope we make it through.”

Forecasters warned that after charting up Florida’s west coast, a weakened Irma could push into Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee and beyond. A tropical storm warning was issued for the first time ever in Atlanta, some 200 miles from the sea.

“Once this system passes through, it’s going to be a race to save lives and sustain lives,” Federal Emergency Management Agency chief Brock Long said on “Fox News Sunday.”

With FEMA still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma could test the agency’s ability to handle two disasters at the same time.

Florida’s governor activated all 7,000 members of the Florida National Guard, and 10,000 guardsmen from elsewhere were being deployed.

Florida Power and Light warned it will take weeks before electricity is fully restored.

For days, forecasters had warned that Irma was taking dead aim at the Miami metropolitan area and the rest of Florida’s Atlantic coast.

But then Irma made a more pronounced westward shift — the result of what meteorologists said was an atmospheric tug-of-war between weather systems that nudged Irma and determined when it made its crucial right turn into Florida.

Irma at one time was the most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the open Atlantic, a Category 5 with a peak wind speed of 185 mph (300 kph). Given its size, strength and projected course, it could still prove one of the most devastating hurricanes ever to hit Florida.

The storm brought memories of Hurricane Charley, which blew ashore near Fort Myers in 2004 with winds near 149 mph. It caused $15 billion in damage and was blamed for as many as 35 deaths in the U.S.

Weather

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►  Hurricane Irma will batter Florida and ‘devastate the United States,’ officials warn

As the weather forecasts and warnings from officials grew increasingly dire, hundreds of thousands of people across Florida fled their homes before the rapidly closing window to escape Irma’s wrath slammed shut. Forecasters said Irma, a hurricane of remarkable size and power that already has battered islands across the Caribbean, would approach South Florida by Sunday morning is likely to slam into its southern tip before tracking north across a heavily populated area.

“It’s not a question of if Florida’s going to be impacted, it’s a question of how bad Florida’s going to be impacted,“ William “Brock” Long, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said Friday at a news conference.

Officials in Georgia and the Carolinas - where heavy rains and flooding are expected early next week - have declared emergencies, and late Friday, South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster ordered mandatory evacuation Saturday morning of the state’s eight barrier islands off the southern coast. But attention remained focused on Florida. Forecasts call for up to 20 inches of rain and thrashing winds no matter how the storm pivots before hitting the mainland United States.

“Irma is likely to make landfall in Florida as a dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the center,“ the National Hurricane Center said.

The center said that Irma, which had maximum sustained winds near 155 mph and higher gusts Friday as it passed between the Central Bahamas and north coast of Cuba, was expected to remain a powerful Category 4 hurricane.

Local, state and federal officials have offered ominous warnings as the storm zeroed in on Florida, making it clear how much danger they felt the Sunshine State could face in coming days. Long urged people from Alabama to North Carolina to monitor and prepare for the storm, calling it “a threat that is going to devastate the United States, either Florida or some of the southeastern states.“

Floridians are familiar with ominous forecasts and hurricane warnings, and many have painful memories of Hurricane Andrew, which made landfall as a Category 5 monster in 1992, and other storms that brought lashing rain and winds. But when asked about people in South Florida who intend to ride out the storm at home, Long was blunt.

“I can guarantee you that I don’t know anybody in Florida that’s ever experienced what’s about to hit South Florida,“ Long said. “They need to get out and listen and heed the warnings.“

Mark DeMaria, acting deputy director of the hurricane center, said Friday afternoon that the latest models showed the storm track shifting slightly to the west, putting Southwest Florida in particular jeopardy for the most violent winds while all of South Florida will have significant impacts.

“We really want to emphasize the very vulnerable Southwest Florida area,“ DeMaria said.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) has warned people that evacuation zones could expand and said that all Floridians “should be prepared” to leave their homes. Scott also has cited the memories of Andrew, calling Irma “more devastating on its current path,“ and warned that much of the state could be imperiled.

In addition to having intense power, Irma also is an immense storm, with forecasters reporting hurricane-force winds extending some 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm force winds extending as far as 185 miles out.

Airports around the state said they would suspend flights and cease operations. Publix, a grocery store chain, announced plans to close stores across the state in waves and did not say when they would reopen. Tom Bossert, homeland security adviser to President Trump, said Friday that people need to have enough food and water to get by during a period when the rain and wind will prevent authorities from getting to them.

“We have pre-deployed and pre-staged, but we can’t actually get to that final point of care until conditions permit,“ he said Friday during a White House briefing.

The center has issued a hurricane warning covering all of South Florida, where local officials have ordered evacuations along the coast. In Miami-Dade County, the state’s most populous, mandatory evacuations were issued for about 660,000 people, including for Miami Beach and Key Biscayne. It was the largest evacuation ordered in Miami-Dade history, said Carlos Gimenez, the county’s mayor.

Miami City Hall, an Art Deco building right on Biscayne Bay in Coconut Grove, an evacuation zone, was locked and mostly vacant on Friday. The only City Hall parking spot that was occupied? A black Ford Expedition in the spot labeled for Miami Mayor Tomas Regalado.

Many people ordered to leave Broward and Palm Beach counties were directed to public schools, which Scott has shuttered across the state so they can serve as shelters and staging areas for first responders. Many public schools across the state canceled classes, while colleges had also closed campuses and rescheduled football games.

Pompano Beach High School, which sits just a few miles from the Atlantic Ocean and is normally home to the Golden Tornadoes, was transformed Friday into a safe haven for about 150 people seeking shelter from Irma. Several volunteers said they expected the school, one of about 20 facilities Broward County is using as a shelter, to reach its capacity of 280 people by Saturday.

Those already packed into the school’s cafeteria had one thing in common: They were either unable or unwilling to leave the area, despite a mandatory evacuation order for several sections of the county, including anyone close to the nearby ocean. Only those who had registered starting at noon Thursday were allowed into the school, and once capacity was reached, others who showed up were directed to venues with larger spaces.

Three Broward County Sheriffs deputies were at the front door Friday, inspecting all bags for weapons, drugs and alcohol. Two paramedics were assigned to the shelter in three shifts, and two will be in the building 24 hours a day starting Saturday morning, along with at least a half dozen law enforcement officers. The men, women and children filing inside have been greeted by several volunteers and county employees who will be working around the clock starting at 8 a.m. Saturday.

They’re staffing a facility that doesn’t quite have all the comforts of home - there are two bathrooms and no showers, cots or WiFi - but there are a few. Two television sets were tuned to the Weather Channel, providing the latest news about Irma’s approach - all of it bad. There also were nine microwave ovens, plugs for cellphones and computers and, eventually, a generator.

Many occupants came fully prepared. A a number of air mattresses, chaise lounges and sleeping bags were set up in neat rows throughout the cafeteria. Three free meals a day will be served.

Someone brought in stacks of books, and others played checkers, cards, watched TV, read or took naps. An elderly couple came in concerned about keeping their insulin refrigerated. They were quickly assured by a paramedic that the insulin would be stored in a cafeteria fridge and be available anytime.

Suzie and Renè Wilhelm were in Florida on vacation from the Netherlands, staying at a hotel a block from a nearby Fort Lauderdale beach. Renè, a Mercedes-Benz salesman, said they left Amsterdam for Orlando last Monday, not really aware of the huge storm gathering hundreds of miles away.

“We’ve been coming to Florida since 2000 - Orlando, Miami, Fort Lauderdale - and we had no idea this was happening,“ Renè Wilhelm said. “We’re used to snow, but not this.“

They stayed in Orlando for a day, then drove south on Wednesday, at the time hoping that the storm would veer away from South Florida.

“We didn’t know what to do,“ said Suzie Wilhelm, who works in health care. “As we were driving here, I thought, ‘This is a stupid thing to do.‘ I called our travel agent in the Netherlands, and also the same company here, to see if they could get us out, but they never even called me back or answered my emails. The woman at our hotel tried to book us somewhere else, but everything was filled.“

They tried one shelter, but were told there was no food and that they could not leave if they went in.

“It was terrifying, so we came here,“ she said. “You can come and go. People have been very nice to us.“

Not far away, Bill and Jane Borum, both native Washingtonians and retirees, were reading to pass the hours. They live in a condo at the Bay Colony high-rise in Fort Lauderdale, just steps from the ocean, and left when an evacuation order was issued. They thought about driving north to get out of harm’s way, but traffic was horribly jammed and “we really didn’t have any place to go,“ said Jane Borum, who attended Alice Deal Junior High and Wilson High School in Northwest Washington “many years ago” and retired to South Florida with her husband.

“Our kids in Maryland wanted us to fly home, but we couldn’t get on a flight, so now we’re here,“ she said. “It’s our first time in a shelter, and the last, I hope.“

Some hit the road but did not want to go too far. Joseph “Tony” Vincent, 82, said he has seen many storms and planned to hit the road for Irma, but he was not heading far away from the Naples Mobile Home Park. He has weekend room reservations at a modest motel just outside the park, along the Tamiami Trail.

Vincent said that even if he had the money, he wouldn’t leave his home state because of a hurricane.

“Hell, you’d be safer here than taking a car on those roads,“ he said. “You might be killed before you get to Atlanta.“

Other Florida fixtures hunkered down. The Miami-Dade Zoological Park and Gardens - otherwise known as Zoo Miami, which sprawls across more than 700 acres and has more than 3,000 animals - closed down Thursday but said it would not be moving its animals.

“We don’t evacuate our animals since hurricanes can change direction at the last minute and you run the risk of evacuating to a more dangerous location,“ the zoo said in a statement. “Furthermore, the stress of moving the animals can be more dangerous than riding out the storm. The animals that are considered dangerous will stay in their secure night houses, which are made of poured concrete and welded metal.“

When Hurricane Andrew struck, the zoo was hit hard. Tropical birds were missing, cages torn apart and animals traumatized - through, miraculously, most of the animals were unharmed.

Across the main arteries out of Florida, some trips took more than twice as long as normal. People who fled the state trekked into Georgia and South Carolina, and Atlanta’s downtown was turned into a temporary home for many evacuees. In South Carolina, the attorney general’s office reported more than 200 complaints from residents about price-gouging related to gasoline.

Weather

►  Florida Hurricane History

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►  The future path of the center of Hurricane Irma could be anywhere within this cone

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Hurricane Irma Slams Caribbean Islands as Category 5 Storm

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Hurricane Irma roared into the Caribbean with record force early Wednesday, its 185-mph winds shaking homes and flooding buildings on a chain of small islands along a path toward Puerto Rico, Cuba and Hispaniola and a possible direct hit on densely populated South Florida.

The strongest Atlantic Ocean hurricane ever recorded passed almost directly over the island of Barbuda, causing widespread flooding and downing trees. France sent emergency food and water rations to the French islands of Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy, where Irma ripped off roofs and knocked out all electricity.

The regional authority for Guadeloupe and neighboring islands said the fire station in Saint Barthelemy was flooded by more than 3 feet (1 meter) of water and no rescue vehicles could move. The government headquarters on Saint Martin was partially destroyed.

There were no immediate reports of casualties but the minister for French overseas territories, Annick Girardin, said “We have a lot to fear for a certain number of our compatriots who unfortunately didn’t want to listen to the protection measures and go to more secure sites ... We’re preparing for the worst.”

Antigua and Barbuda Prime Minister Gaston Browne said the twin-island nation appears to have weathered its brush with Hurricane Irma with no deaths, though he noted that the government had only done a preliminary assessment of Barbuda. There were widespread reports of property damage but he says the public and government had prepared well for the storm.

“We in Antigua have weathered the most powerful hurricane ever to storm its way through the Caribbean,” the prime minister said. “And we have done so with stunning results.”

Hurricane Irma had maximum winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) as of 11 a.m. Wednesday and was producing dangerous storm surge and heavy rain. The center of the storm was about 65 miles (110 kilometers) east-southeast of St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and about 140 miles (225 kilometers) east of San Juan, Puerto Rico. It was heading west-northwest at 16 mph (26 kph).

As the eye of Hurricane Irma passed over Barbuda around 2 a.m., phone lines went down under heavy rain and howling winds that sent debris flying as people huddled in their homes or government shelters.

The storm ripped the roof off the island’s police station, forcing officers to seek refuge in the fire station and at the community center that served as an official shelter. The Category 5 storm also knocked out communication between islands.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Irma’s winds would fluctuate but the storm would likely remain at Category 4 or 5 strength for the next day or two. The most dangerous winds, usually nearest to the eye, were forecast to pass near the northern Virgin Islands and near or just north of Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

President Donald Trump declared emergencies in Florida, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and authorities in the Bahamas said they would evacuate six southern islands.

Warm water is fuel for hurricanes and Irma was moving over water that was 1.8 degrees (1 degree Celsius) warmer than normal. The 79 degree (26 Celsius) water that hurricanes need went about 250 feet (80 meters) deep, said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the private forecasting service Weather Underground.

Four other storms have had winds as strong in the overall Atlantic region, but they were in the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico, which usually have warmer waters. Hurricane Allen hit 190 mph in 1980, while 2005′s Wilma, 1988′s Gilbert and a 1935 great Florida Keys storm all had 185 mph winds.

The northern Leeward Islands were expected to see normal tide levels rise by as much as 11 feet (3.3 meters), while the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas could see surge of 20 feet (6 meters) and higher waves later in the week, forecasters said.

Bahamas Prime Minister Hubert Minnis said his government was evacuating six islands in the south because authorities would not be able to help anyone caught in the “potentially catastrophic” wind, flooding and storm surge. People there would be flown to Nassau in what he called the largest storm evacuation in the country’s history.

“The price you may pay for not evacuating is your life or serious physical harm,” Minnis said.

The U.S. National Weather Service said Puerto Rico had not seen a hurricane of Irma’s magnitude since Hurricane San Felipe in 1928, which killed a total of 2,748 people in Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico and Florida.

“The dangerousness of this event is like nothing we’ve ever seen,” Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rossello said. “A lot of infrastructure won’t be able to withstand this kind of force.”

The eye of the storm was expected to rip westward on a path taking it a little north of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba.

The northern parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti could see 10 inches (25 centimeters) of rain, with as much as 20 inches (50 centimeters) in the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos.

The storm seemed almost certain to hit the United States by early next week.

“You’d be hard pressed to find any model that doesn’t have some impact on Florida.” said University of Miami senior hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy.

In Florida, people stocked up on drinking water and other supplies.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott activated 100 members of the Florida National Guard to be deployed across the state, and 7,000 National Guard members were to report for duty Friday when the storm could be approaching the area. On Monday, Scott declared a state of emergency in all of Florida’s 67 counties.

Officials in the Florida Keys geared up to get tourists and residents out of Irma’s path, and the mayor of Miami-Dade County said people should be prepared to evacuate Miami Beach and most coastal areas.

Mayor Carlos Gimenez said the voluntary evacuations could begin as soon as Wednesday evening. He activated the emergency operation center and urged residents to have three days’ worth of food and water.

The Hurricane Center in Miami said hurricane-force winds extended 50 miles (85 kilometers) from Irma’s center and tropical storm-force winds extended 175 miles (280 kilometers).

Also Wednesday morning, a new tropical storm formed in the Gulf of Mexico off Mexico’s coast. Tropical Storm Katia had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph) with some strengthening forecast over the next two days. But the hurricane center said Katia was expected to stay offshore through Friday morning.

And another tropical storm farther east in the Atlantic was expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night. Tropical Storm Jose’s maximum sustained winds had increased to near 60 mph (95 kph). The storm was centered about 1,255 miles (2,020 kilometers) east of the Lesser Antilles and was moving west near 13 mph (20 kph).

Weather

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►  Science Says: Sorting the ‘spaghetti’ of hurricane scenario

Hurricane Irma, with its record strong winds, is lashing the Caribbean but where will it go from there?

Forecasters turn to computer simulations to try to predict a storm’s path and how strong it will be.

Different computer models — often run by different governments and various agencies — use different recipes or formulas to mimic the atmosphere.  They all also approximate current conditions differently.

So the resulting models look like a plate of spaghetti thrown on a map. But in that messy mass, meteorologists can get an increasingly strong idea of where a storm like Irma is heading.

A look at how those predictions are made:


WHO TO TRUST

The place to start is the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast, say several meteorologists who are not part of the federal government. “You can’t beat the hurricane center forecast,” said Miami television meteorologist Max Mayfield, who was the director of the hurricane center from 2000 to 2007.

The hurricane center sees computer models other people don’t, judges individual models and uses a consensus of the better performing models, he said. The center also shows how well they do over time — and they are doing better.  The trouble, say those experts, is that those same images of models are spreading over social media and they are getting misread. There are even bogus hurricane tracks spreading on social media.


HOW GOOD ARE THE PREDICTIONS

Forecasters track the beginnings of storms, whether they come out of unstable weather that pops up in the Gulf of Mexico, or chug off Africa in classic Atlantic storm mode like Irma. The models usually agree about where the storm will go for the next 12 to 24 hours and the spread out with time.

Today, the five-day forecast is as good as the three-day forecast was 15 years ago. And the margin of error for the five-day track forecast is nearly half of what it was when it was first introduced in 2001. What’s key is that meteorologists don’t stick to a single line or track because a slight change can mean a big difference, Mayfield said. For example, a tiny turn over Cuba, where mountains can eat up storms, can weaken Irma considerably.


WHAT GOES INTO A MODEL

Computer models are like massive apps that try to solve complex equations that simulate the behavior of the atmosphere and oceans, said MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel. Usually they don’t go much farther out in time than five days, and if they do, it’s with decreasing accuracy. They use real-time readings of wind, temperature, air pressure, humidity and more. But those real-time readings are sparse and spread out over the open Atlantic.

Sometimes the models point to the same general conclusion, like Superstorm Sandy hitting the New York-New Jersey area. The models did well about five days out in 2012, said Emanuel. Sometimes they are all over the place. This time they are in between, not widespread but not clustered, he said.


THE BETTER MODELS

The top performing model is usually the European model, which is slightly ahead in long-term accuracy over the American one, Emanuel said. But that doesn’t mean the European will be better every time, he said.

“Good forecasters look at the whole suite” of models, Emanuel said.

And sometimes one model is just nailing a certain storm so you stay with the hot model.

Forecasters also run so-called ensembles with as many as 51 tweaks to the data and formulas. They are lower resolution and quality but provide more information and possibilities for forecasters.


WHAT SHOULD YOU LOOK FOR

“The best guide for risk is to look at the cone” of projected landfall, often called the “cone of uncertainty,” said Jeff Masters, meteorology director at the private forecasting service Weather Underground. If you are in the cone, you should be concerned and prepared, he said. Even if you aren’t in the cone but nearby, you need to pay attention.

The trouble is with the spaghetti of models, people focus too intently on one line, Masters said. The hurricane center cone only goes out five days — and people want to know if they are in danger earlier, Masters said. So that’s when they turn to the longer range models even if it is beyond that cone.

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